As Russian forces bear down on the Ukrainian capitol, many in the world watch filled with fear. Russia is a nuclear power they reason and will use nukes against anyone who opposes them. This is feuled by Putin's threats against NATO and the EU that any nation interfering with suffer serious consequences. Then of course there is the upping of his nuclear posture that caused nations of the world to do the same.
What's it all about?
Nations around the world have been sending Ukraine arms including those in NATO and the EU against Russia wishes. It's not troops many explain, which is true, but it's not as simple as that. A US Javelin or Turkish drone sent to Ukraine for the specific purpose of repelling the invasion is still killing Russian solders. It's like person A giving someone a gun for the purpose of killing person B, person B is not gonna be happy with person A. Under US law that would make person A an accessory to murder. Russia invaded Ukraine because it wanted to prevent nations from doing what they are actually doing, arming and supporting Ukraine against them. The only thing missing is Ukraine NATO membership.
But would Russia actually launch?
To answer this question we need to look at history. For decades NATO and Russia stood toe to toe with the threat of nuclear war always on the table. NATO expanded it's reach in Europe getting ever closer to Russia's border, to their objection, and not a single nuke flew. Russia for decades has been to war numerous times and never once did they fire a nuke, this is even after a big loss in Afghanistan. Does this mean 100% they won't launch? No, but the only country to actually use anything close to nuclear was the US and that was only after years of armed conflict.
MAD has always been a successful deterrent.
Encyclopedia Britanica - MAD mutual assured destruction, principle of deterrence founded on the notion that a nuclear attack by one superpower would be met with an overwhelming nuclear counterattack such that both the attacker and the defender would be annihilated.
Russia is not a country with an extreme religious ideology championing suicide as a glorious option. And even in nations with those ideologies, their leaders never embrace it them themselves. Why is that?
Rulers that seek power need something to rule and rubble never made a good subject. Russia could have taken Ukraine in a day if it decided to use nukes, but the soil contamination would last a 1000 years not to mention the travelling toxic cloud that would hit Russia itself. So ask yourself why would a nation that is seeking to gain new territory deny themselves that territory with a nuke? And why would they risk a course of action that could literally wipe them from the Earth?
What could Russia do?
Russia has more then just conventional weapons at their disposal and they have used them on nations before. Everything from cyber attacks to the dreaded misinformation that sent US politics into a frenzy. Just as the US uses sanctions as a type of attack Russia uses these as a ballistic alternative as well. These types of assaults can topple a country with less cost in blood and treasure than a long and drawn out invasion or nuke strike. The bar to use them is also extremely lower, no need for a shot to have ever been fired to put them in action.
So while Russia plays on peoples fears of a nuclear response think about what Putin's goal really is. Is it to rule over a charred and rubbled world or put foe nations into chaos then swoop in and restore order?